**Traders assign the highest probability (62.5%) to no Claude Opus 5.6+ release by November 30 because Anthropic released Opus 5.5 on September 22, 2026, and historical gaps between major Opus updates average 50–60 days.** With only 52 days elapsed by November 13 and no official announcements, credible leaks, or benchmark teasers for a 5.6+ successor, the market-implied odds reflect the lab’s established cadence of shipping flagship Opus models every six to ten weeks. Recent November activity has focused on non-Opus updates such as Fable 5.2 (November 9) and plugin tooling, reinforcing the view that the next Opus iteration is unlikely before December. Key near-term catalysts remain absent, though any surprise developer conference or internal progress signal could shift the closely spaced daily probabilities for mid-to-late November dates.