Canada’s population has declined for three consecutive quarters through April 2026, falling 55,000 in Q1 alone and more than 234,000 since mid-2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Statistics Canada data attribute the contraction primarily to large net outflows of non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students and temporary foreign workers, reinforced by the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan that halved new student targets and cut overall temporary admissions sharply while stabilizing permanent resident intakes near 380,000. Projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer indicate flat or slightly negative growth for the full year, consistent with the policy goal of reducing the temporary-resident share below 5 percent. These verified quarterly results and unchanged targets underpin trader consensus that the year-over-year total will finish lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Up
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s population has declined for three consecutive quarters through April 2026, falling 55,000 in Q1 alone and more than 234,000 since mid-2025, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Statistics Canada data attribute the contraction primarily to large net outflows of non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students and temporary foreign workers, reinforced by the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan that halved new student targets and cut overall temporary admissions sharply while stabilizing permanent resident intakes near 380,000. Projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer indicate flat or slightly negative growth for the full year, consistent with the policy goal of reducing the temporary-resident share below 5 percent. These verified quarterly results and unchanged targets underpin trader consensus that the year-over-year total will finish lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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