Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 has been shaped by the federal government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which cut new temporary resident arrivals by more than 40 percent from prior targets, including a near-halving of international student entries and reduced temporary worker admissions. These measures, combined with earlier caps on study and work permits, have produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset permanent resident inflows. Statistics Canada data confirm a 0.1 percent quarterly decline in the first quarter and a 0.2 percent year-over-year drop, marking the first annual contraction on record. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections anticipate flat overall growth for the year as outflows continue, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to a population decrease.