Recent polling from Ipsos, Leger, and others shows roughly 70% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026 referendum, with only about 19-24% supporting the option to begin a constitutional process toward a future binding separation vote—down from higher early-2026 levels. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly stated her preference to stay in Canada while scheduling this preliminary, non-binding question alongside others on sovereignty within confederation. Citizen petitions seeking a direct independence referendum encountered court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights, limiting momentum. The October ballot structure, combined with constitutional barriers to secession and consistent majority opposition in surveys, underpins trader consensus pricing a decisive rejection of any 2026 independence outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$253,859 交易量
$253,859 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$253,859 交易量
$253,859 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from Ipsos, Leger, and others shows roughly 70% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026 referendum, with only about 19-24% supporting the option to begin a constitutional process toward a future binding separation vote—down from higher early-2026 levels. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly stated her preference to stay in Canada while scheduling this preliminary, non-binding question alongside others on sovereignty within confederation. Citizen petitions seeking a direct independence referendum encountered court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights, limiting momentum. The October ballot structure, combined with constitutional barriers to secession and consistent majority opposition in surveys, underpins trader consensus pricing a decisive rejection of any 2026 independence outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
交易量
$253,859結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from Ipsos, Leger, and others shows roughly 70% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026 referendum, with only about 19-24% supporting the option to begin a constitutional process toward a future binding separation vote—down from higher early-2026 levels. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly stated her preference to stay in Canada while scheduling this preliminary, non-binding question alongside others on sovereignty within confederation. Citizen petitions seeking a direct independence referendum encountered court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights, limiting momentum. The October ballot structure, combined with constitutional barriers to secession and consistent majority opposition in surveys, underpins trader consensus pricing a decisive rejection of any 2026 independence outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$253,859結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from Ipsos, Leger, and others shows roughly 70% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026 referendum, with only about 19-24% supporting the option to begin a constitutional process toward a future binding separation vote—down from higher early-2026 levels. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly stated her preference to stay in Canada while scheduling this preliminary, non-binding question alongside others on sovereignty within confederation. Citizen petitions seeking a direct independence referendum encountered court rulings requiring First Nations consultation on treaty rights, limiting momentum. The October ballot structure, combined with constitutional barriers to secession and consistent majority opposition in surveys, underpins trader consensus pricing a decisive rejection of any 2026 independence outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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