Doug Ford’s decisive February 2025 majority victory, followed by his January 2026 convention pledge to seek a fourth mandate, has solidified trader expectations that he will remain Ontario PC Party leader through year-end. The party continues to lead polling averages despite some softening in his personal approval ratings, with no scheduled leadership review, caucus revolt, or resignation signals reported in recent months. Contingency discussions among conservative groups remain exploratory and explicitly not aimed at an immediate challenge, while Ford has publicly distanced himself from scenarios involving early departure. These factors align with the 87% implied probability that he stays in the role, reflecting the absence of structural or political catalysts for change before December 31, 2026.