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氣候與科學·流行病

美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告

icon for 美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告
氣候與科學·流行病

美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告

12月 31

12月 31

是

23% 機率
Polymarket

$71,397 交易量

是

23% 機率
Polymarket

$71,397 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of active CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notices and no recent escalations to this extreme category for any disease. Official CDC surveillance as of mid-May 2026 confirms zero Level 4 designations, with recent activity limited to Level 2 enhancements, such as new chikungunya alerts in Mauritius and dengue warnings across 16 countries amid rising imported cases. A multi-country hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel prompted a Health Alert Network advisory but fell short of travel notice criteria. Ongoing H5N1 avian influenza monitoring shows no human-to-human transmission, while polio and measles upticks remain at lower precaution levels. Level 4 thresholds demand widespread life-threatening risks to travelers, rare outside major pandemics; weekly FluView and WHO updates through December will gauge any shifts in epidemiological trends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$71,397
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the complete absence of active CDC Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notices and no recent escalations to this extreme category for any disease. Official CDC surveillance as of mid-May 2026 confirms zero Level 4 designations, with recent activity limited to Level 2 enhancements, such as new chikungunya alerts in Mauritius and dengue warnings across 16 countries amid rising imported cases. A multi-country hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel prompted a Health Alert Network advisory but fell short of travel notice criteria. Ongoing H5N1 avian influenza monitoring shows no human-to-human transmission, while polio and measles upticks remain at lower precaution levels. Level 4 thresholds demand widespread life-threatening risks to travelers, rare outside major pandemics; weekly FluView and WHO updates through December will gauge any shifts in epidemiological trends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$71,397
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDC在12月31日前發布第4級警告嗎？" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告" has generated $71.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告" is "CDC在12月31日前發布第4級警告嗎？" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國疾病管制與預防中心在12月31日前發出第4級警告" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.