Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz control, including repeated strikes, a naval blockade, and halted tanker loadings at Kharg Island since late July 2026, have idled nearly all Iranian crude exports from the facility handling roughly 90 percent of Tehran's shipments. These disruptions have elevated global energy prices and shipping insurance costs while prompting speculation about potential amphibious operations on Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. However, analysts cite high escalation risks to world oil supply, regional stability, and the fragility of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding as barriers to seizure before the August 31 resolution date. Market-implied odds remain low, reflecting trader consensus that Iranian forces retain de facto control amid the standoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$91,726 交易量
2026-08-31
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 交易量
August 31
$23,708 交易量
1%
September 30
$68,018 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz control, including repeated strikes, a naval blockade, and halted tanker loadings at Kharg Island since late July 2026, have idled nearly all Iranian crude exports from the facility handling roughly 90 percent of Tehran's shipments. These disruptions have elevated global energy prices and shipping insurance costs while prompting speculation about potential amphibious operations on Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. However, analysts cite high escalation risks to world oil supply, regional stability, and the fragility of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding as barriers to seizure before the August 31 resolution date. Market-implied odds remain low, reflecting trader consensus that Iranian forces retain de facto control amid the standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$91,726結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz control, including repeated strikes, a naval blockade, and halted tanker loadings at Kharg Island since late July 2026, have idled nearly all Iranian crude exports from the facility handling roughly 90 percent of Tehran's shipments. These disruptions have elevated global energy prices and shipping insurance costs while prompting speculation about potential amphibious operations on Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. However, analysts cite high escalation risks to world oil supply, regional stability, and the fragility of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding as barriers to seizure before the August 31 resolution date. Market-implied odds remain low, reflecting trader consensus that Iranian forces retain de facto control amid the standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$91,726結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz control, including repeated strikes, a naval blockade, and halted tanker loadings at Kharg Island since late July 2026, have idled nearly all Iranian crude exports from the facility handling roughly 90 percent of Tehran's shipments. These disruptions have elevated global energy prices and shipping insurance costs while prompting speculation about potential amphibious operations on Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. However, analysts cite high escalation risks to world oil supply, regional stability, and the fragility of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding as barriers to seizure before the August 31 resolution date. Market-implied odds remain low, reflecting trader consensus that Iranian forces retain de facto control amid the standoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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