Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military facilities and repeated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in global energy markets. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with capacity near 7 million barrels per day, while the strait facilitates about 20% of worldwide oil and gas flows, driving volatility in Brent crude futures and tanker rates. Ongoing ship disruptions and US threats of extended blockades or potential occupation have slowed transit to near standstill at times, supporting higher implied probabilities of territorial shifts amid fragile ceasefires and mediated talks. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines, further naval deployments, and any Iranian responses that could alter oil supply dynamics or prompt sanctions adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$91,726 交易量
2026-08-31
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 交易量
August 31
$23,708 交易量
1%
September 30
$68,018 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military facilities and repeated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in global energy markets. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with capacity near 7 million barrels per day, while the strait facilitates about 20% of worldwide oil and gas flows, driving volatility in Brent crude futures and tanker rates. Ongoing ship disruptions and US threats of extended blockades or potential occupation have slowed transit to near standstill at times, supporting higher implied probabilities of territorial shifts amid fragile ceasefires and mediated talks. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines, further naval deployments, and any Iranian responses that could alter oil supply dynamics or prompt sanctions adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$91,726結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military facilities and repeated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in global energy markets. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with capacity near 7 million barrels per day, while the strait facilitates about 20% of worldwide oil and gas flows, driving volatility in Brent crude futures and tanker rates. Ongoing ship disruptions and US threats of extended blockades or potential occupation have slowed transit to near standstill at times, supporting higher implied probabilities of territorial shifts amid fragile ceasefires and mediated talks. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines, further naval deployments, and any Iranian responses that could alter oil supply dynamics or prompt sanctions adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$91,726結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military facilities and repeated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in global energy markets. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with capacity near 7 million barrels per day, while the strait facilitates about 20% of worldwide oil and gas flows, driving volatility in Brent crude futures and tanker rates. Ongoing ship disruptions and US threats of extended blockades or potential occupation have slowed transit to near standstill at times, supporting higher implied probabilities of territorial shifts amid fragile ceasefires and mediated talks. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic deadlines, further naval deployments, and any Iranian responses that could alter oil supply dynamics or prompt sanctions adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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