OpenAI Codex usage-limit resets, primarily banked resets announced by lead Tibo Sottiaux, have driven the market toward one event in the week of November 9 at 48% implied probability. The Nov 12 banked reset—triggered after hints about shipping updates to “dots” and following the Nov 1 pair that ended a 28-day challenge—represents the sole qualifying discretionary action so far, with the last global reset occurring October 28. Traders weigh the median historical cadence of roughly 2–3 days against the absence of further official signals through November 14, keeping three resets at 30.8% and two at 24% as live alternatives if additional updates prompt more credits before the November 15 resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects uncertainty around OpenAI’s discretionary timing amid ongoing model improvements and usage patterns.