SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於5次 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 交易量
$450,036 交易量
2026-12-31
少於5次
51%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
少於5次 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 交易量
$450,036 交易量
2026-12-31
少於5次
$90,622 交易量
51%
5-6
$108,327 交易量
26%
7-8
$152,207 交易量
4%
9-10
$55,882 交易量
2%
11-12
$3,765 交易量
2%
13-14
$4,747 交易量
1%
15-16
$25,181 交易量
2%
>16
$9,304 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$450,036結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$450,036結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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