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icon for 以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？
地緣政治·以色列

以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？

icon for 以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？
地緣政治·以色列

以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？

$2,149,643 交易量

2025-12-30
Polymarket

$2,149,643 交易量

Polymarket

2026年12月31日

$687,889 交易量

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, ongoing since late 2025 with sessions in Paris and Jordan, represent the main driver of trader assessments on normalization prospects. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani have signaled openness to a US-backed security pact involving demilitarized zones near the border, revival of the 1974 disengagement lines, Druze protections in Suwayda, and Israeli withdrawal from recent outposts, potentially paving the way for broader diplomatic ties or Abraham Accords entry. Recent Israeli strikes on Syrian sites, Turkish military involvement concerns, and unresolved Golan Heights sovereignty claims have caused pauses but not ended contacts, with Washington applying pressure through sanctions relief and envoy involvement. Full normalization remains distant due to mutual trust deficits and red lines on territory and alliances, though scheduled high-level follow-ups could shift momentum within months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,149,643
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 11, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, ongoing since late 2025 with sessions in Paris and Jordan, represent the main driver of trader assessments on normalization prospects. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani have signaled openness to a US-backed security pact involving demilitarized zones near the border, revival of the 1974 disengagement lines, Druze protections in Suwayda, and Israeli withdrawal from recent outposts, potentially paving the way for broader diplomatic ties or Abraham Accords entry. Recent Israeli strikes on Syrian sites, Turkish military involvement concerns, and unresolved Golan Heights sovereignty claims have caused pauses but not ended contacts, with Washington applying pressure through sanctions relief and envoy involvement. Full normalization remains distant due to mutual trust deficits and red lines on territory and alliances, though scheduled high-level follow-ups could shift momentum within months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,149,643
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 11, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 7%, followed by "2025年12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？" is "2026年12月31日" at just 7%, with "2025年12月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "以色列和敘利亞通過……實現關係正常化？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.