Tensions between Israel and Turkey have escalated sharply over Syria, with Israel conducting airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 to block potential Turkish deployments that Jerusalem views as a red line altering the regional balance. Ankara condemned the action, denied deployment plans, and continued legal and rhetorical measures including arrest warrants. Despite the rivalry—marked by suspended trade, mutual accusations, and competing influence in post-Assad Syria—direct military confrontation remains unlikely before 2027. US diplomatic pressure, including deconfliction efforts involving President Trump’s ties to both leaders, plus mediation channels through Azerbaijan, have contained escalation. Traders price the high probability of no clash by year-end on these restraining factors amid ongoing proxy competition rather than open hostilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$425,911 交易量
$425,911 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$425,911 交易量
$425,911 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Turkey have escalated sharply over Syria, with Israel conducting airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 to block potential Turkish deployments that Jerusalem views as a red line altering the regional balance. Ankara condemned the action, denied deployment plans, and continued legal and rhetorical measures including arrest warrants. Despite the rivalry—marked by suspended trade, mutual accusations, and competing influence in post-Assad Syria—direct military confrontation remains unlikely before 2027. US diplomatic pressure, including deconfliction efforts involving President Trump’s ties to both leaders, plus mediation channels through Azerbaijan, have contained escalation. Traders price the high probability of no clash by year-end on these restraining factors amid ongoing proxy competition rather than open hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$425,911結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Turkey have escalated sharply over Syria, with Israel conducting airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 to block potential Turkish deployments that Jerusalem views as a red line altering the regional balance. Ankara condemned the action, denied deployment plans, and continued legal and rhetorical measures including arrest warrants. Despite the rivalry—marked by suspended trade, mutual accusations, and competing influence in post-Assad Syria—direct military confrontation remains unlikely before 2027. US diplomatic pressure, including deconfliction efforts involving President Trump’s ties to both leaders, plus mediation channels through Azerbaijan, have contained escalation. Traders price the high probability of no clash by year-end on these restraining factors amid ongoing proxy competition rather than open hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$425,911結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETTensions between Israel and Turkey have escalated sharply over Syria, with Israel conducting airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 to block potential Turkish deployments that Jerusalem views as a red line altering the regional balance. Ankara condemned the action, denied deployment plans, and continued legal and rhetorical measures including arrest warrants. Despite the rivalry—marked by suspended trade, mutual accusations, and competing influence in post-Assad Syria—direct military confrontation remains unlikely before 2027. US diplomatic pressure, including deconfliction efforts involving President Trump’s ties to both leaders, plus mediation channels through Azerbaijan, have contained escalation. Traders price the high probability of no clash by year-end on these restraining factors amid ongoing proxy competition rather than open hostilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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