Japan's preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader consensus around modest expansion, with the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter bucket holding the highest market-implied odds at 57.6%. Recent data showing resilient exports, steady private consumption, and positive industrial production have supported this positioning, as analysts' median forecasts cluster near 0.4% QoQ annualized to roughly 1.6%. Domestic demand remains firm amid wage gains and labor shortages, while external risks such as Middle East tensions have yet to materially affect first-quarter readings. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome at 42.6% reflects uncertainty over final revisions and any last-minute adjustments in capital expenditure. With the Cabinet Office print just hours away, these probabilities embed the latest high-frequency indicators and consensus estimates rather than longer-term growth trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.3–0.5% 56.9%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
3%
0.0–0.2%
3%
0.3–0.5%
57%
0.6–0.8%
43%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%以上
2%
0.3–0.5% 56.9%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
$1,317 交易量
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,404 交易量
3%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 交易量
3%
0.3–0.5%
$911 交易量
57%
0.6–0.8%
$586 交易量
43%
0.9–1.1%
$792 交易量
31%
1.2%以上
$3,375 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader consensus around modest expansion, with the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter bucket holding the highest market-implied odds at 57.6%. Recent data showing resilient exports, steady private consumption, and positive industrial production have supported this positioning, as analysts' median forecasts cluster near 0.4% QoQ annualized to roughly 1.6%. Domestic demand remains firm amid wage gains and labor shortages, while external risks such as Middle East tensions have yet to materially affect first-quarter readings. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome at 42.6% reflects uncertainty over final revisions and any last-minute adjustments in capital expenditure. With the Cabinet Office print just hours away, these probabilities embed the latest high-frequency indicators and consensus estimates rather than longer-term growth trends.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$9,743結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader consensus around modest expansion, with the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter bucket holding the highest market-implied odds at 57.6%. Recent data showing resilient exports, steady private consumption, and positive industrial production have supported this positioning, as analysts' median forecasts cluster near 0.4% QoQ annualized to roughly 1.6%. Domestic demand remains firm amid wage gains and labor shortages, while external risks such as Middle East tensions have yet to materially affect first-quarter readings. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome at 42.6% reflects uncertainty over final revisions and any last-minute adjustments in capital expenditure. With the Cabinet Office print just hours away, these probabilities embed the latest high-frequency indicators and consensus estimates rather than longer-term growth trends.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$9,743結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Japan's preliminary Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled for May 19 has anchored trader consensus around modest expansion, with the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter bucket holding the highest market-implied odds at 57.6%. Recent data showing resilient exports, steady private consumption, and positive industrial production have supported this positioning, as analysts' median forecasts cluster near 0.4% QoQ annualized to roughly 1.6%. Domestic demand remains firm amid wage gains and labor shortages, while external risks such as Middle East tensions have yet to materially affect first-quarter readings. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome at 42.6% reflects uncertainty over final revisions and any last-minute adjustments in capital expenditure. With the Cabinet Office print just hours away, these probabilities embed the latest high-frequency indicators and consensus estimates rather than longer-term growth trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions