Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate minimum temperatures around 25–27°C on July 20, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm, humid air northward and sustaining above-average summer conditions. This setup, combined with typical July climatology featuring overnight lows near 23–25°C, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 26–28°C at 35–37.5%. Model consensus shows limited spread, though variables such as nocturnal cloud cover, urban heat retention, and any late shifts in steering flow could nudge the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest near-term refinements for traders assessing these narrow probability bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月20日東京最低溫度？
7月20日東京最低溫度？
30°C 69%
31°C或以上 50%
28°C 36%
24°C 36%
最新
最新
2026-07-20
21°C或以下
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
22%
24°C
36%
25°C
36%
26°C
36%
27°C
36%
28°C
36%
29°C
35%
30°C
69%
31°C或以上
50%
30°C 69%
31°C或以上 50%
28°C 36%
24°C 36%
最新
最新
2026-07-20
21°C或以下
$101 交易量
1%
22°C
$37 交易量
1%
23°C
$27 交易量
22%
24°C
$0 交易量
36%
25°C
$0 交易量
36%
26°C
$0 交易量
36%
27°C
$4 交易量
36%
28°C
$0 交易量
36%
29°C
$112 交易量
35%
30°C
$37 交易量
69%
31°C或以上
$37 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate minimum temperatures around 25–27°C on July 20, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm, humid air northward and sustaining above-average summer conditions. This setup, combined with typical July climatology featuring overnight lows near 23–25°C, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 26–28°C at 35–37.5%. Model consensus shows limited spread, though variables such as nocturnal cloud cover, urban heat retention, and any late shifts in steering flow could nudge the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest near-term refinements for traders assessing these narrow probability bands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$355結束日期
2026-07-20市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate minimum temperatures around 25–27°C on July 20, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm, humid air northward and sustaining above-average summer conditions. This setup, combined with typical July climatology featuring overnight lows near 23–25°C, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 26–28°C at 35–37.5%. Model consensus shows limited spread, though variables such as nocturnal cloud cover, urban heat retention, and any late shifts in steering flow could nudge the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest near-term refinements for traders assessing these narrow probability bands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$355結束日期
2026-07-20市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate minimum temperatures around 25–27°C on July 20, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm, humid air northward and sustaining above-average summer conditions. This setup, combined with typical July climatology featuring overnight lows near 23–25°C, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 26–28°C at 35–37.5%. Model consensus shows limited spread, though variables such as nocturnal cloud cover, urban heat retention, and any late shifts in steering flow could nudge the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest near-term refinements for traders assessing these narrow probability bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions