**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other sources point to a minimum temperature in Tokyo on July 7 around 19–21°C under continued cloudy conditions with lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon pattern.** This keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 21°C leading at 39.5% and nearby outcomes (20°C, 19°C) within a few percentage points, reflecting traders' assessment of forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Cloud cover reduces nocturnal radiative cooling, elevating overnight lows compared to clearer nights, while scattered showers and high humidity maintain moderate temperatures by limiting daytime heating and enhancing downward longwave radiation. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo stations can add 1–2°C relative to rural areas, but models show minor variations based on exact wind flow and precipitation timing. Historical July minima average near 23°C, yet the current pattern—post-plum rain season transition with frequent cloudiness—favors slightly cooler readings. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA model runs and 48-hour forecasts, which could shift probabilities if clearer skies or stronger onshore flow develop. Traders weigh these variables against ensemble spread, explaining the balanced odds across the 19–23°C range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?
21°C 53%
20°C 36%
22°C 7%
19°C 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-07
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
36%
21°C
53%
22°C
7%
23°C
3%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 53%
20°C 36%
22°C 7%
19°C 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-07
15°C or below
$259 交易量
<1%
16°C
$330 交易量
<1%
17°C
$407 交易量
<1%
18°C
$85 交易量
1%
19°C
$97 交易量
5%
20°C
$142 交易量
36%
21°C
$290 交易量
53%
22°C
$143 交易量
7%
23°C
$76 交易量
3%
24°C
$456 交易量
<1%
25°C or higher
$517 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other sources point to a minimum temperature in Tokyo on July 7 around 19–21°C under continued cloudy conditions with lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon pattern.**
This keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 21°C leading at 39.5% and nearby outcomes (20°C, 19°C) within a few percentage points, reflecting traders' assessment of forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Cloud cover reduces nocturnal radiative cooling, elevating overnight lows compared to clearer nights, while scattered showers and high humidity maintain moderate temperatures by limiting daytime heating and enhancing downward longwave radiation.
Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo stations can add 1–2°C relative to rural areas, but models show minor variations based on exact wind flow and precipitation timing. Historical July minima average near 23°C, yet the current pattern—post-plum rain season transition with frequent cloudiness—favors slightly cooler readings.
Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA model runs and 48-hour forecasts, which could shift probabilities if clearer skies or stronger onshore flow develop. Traders weigh these variables against ensemble spread, explaining the balanced odds across the 19–23°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,802結束日期
2026-07-07市場開放時間
Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other sources point to a minimum temperature in Tokyo on July 7 around 19–21°C under continued cloudy conditions with lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon pattern.**
This keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 21°C leading at 39.5% and nearby outcomes (20°C, 19°C) within a few percentage points, reflecting traders' assessment of forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Cloud cover reduces nocturnal radiative cooling, elevating overnight lows compared to clearer nights, while scattered showers and high humidity maintain moderate temperatures by limiting daytime heating and enhancing downward longwave radiation.
Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo stations can add 1–2°C relative to rural areas, but models show minor variations based on exact wind flow and precipitation timing. Historical July minima average near 23°C, yet the current pattern—post-plum rain season transition with frequent cloudiness—favors slightly cooler readings.
Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA model runs and 48-hour forecasts, which could shift probabilities if clearer skies or stronger onshore flow develop. Traders weigh these variables against ensemble spread, explaining the balanced odds across the 19–23°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,802結束日期
2026-07-07市場開放時間
Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other sources point to a minimum temperature in Tokyo on July 7 around 19–21°C under continued cloudy conditions with lingering moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon pattern.** This keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered, with 21°C leading at 39.5% and nearby outcomes (20°C, 19°C) within a few percentage points, reflecting traders' assessment of forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Cloud cover reduces nocturnal radiative cooling, elevating overnight lows compared to clearer nights, while scattered showers and high humidity maintain moderate temperatures by limiting daytime heating and enhancing downward longwave radiation. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo stations can add 1–2°C relative to rural areas, but models show minor variations based on exact wind flow and precipitation timing. Historical July minima average near 23°C, yet the current pattern—post-plum rain season transition with frequent cloudiness—favors slightly cooler readings. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA model runs and 48-hour forecasts, which could shift probabilities if clearer skies or stronger onshore flow develop. Traders weigh these variables against ensemble spread, explaining the balanced odds across the 19–23°C range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions