Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?
17°C 36%
21°C 32%
20°C 29%
22°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-07-06
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
36%
18°C
20%
19°C
20%
20°C
29%
21°C
32%
22°C
26%
23°C
22%
24°C
19%
25°C
11%
26°C or higher
<1%
17°C 36%
21°C 32%
20°C 29%
22°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-07-06
16°C or below
$20 交易量
<1%
17°C
$26 交易量
36%
18°C
$10 交易量
20%
19°C
$0 交易量
20%
20°C
$0 交易量
29%
21°C
$0 交易量
32%
22°C
$0 交易量
26%
23°C
$10 交易量
22%
24°C
$15 交易量
19%
25°C
$24 交易量
11%
26°C or higher
$22 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$127結束日期
2026-07-06市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$127結束日期
2026-07-06市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions