Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on July 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 6?
39°C 37%
40°C 37%
38°C 7%
42°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-06
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
5%
38°C
7%
39°C
37%
40°C
37%
41°C
6%
42°C
7%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 37%
40°C 37%
38°C 7%
42°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-06
35°C or below
$5 交易量
1%
36°C
$0 交易量
1%
37°C
$0 交易量
5%
38°C
$0 交易量
7%
39°C
$38 交易量
37%
40°C
$93 交易量
37%
41°C
$0 交易量
6%
42°C
$2 交易量
7%
43°C
$5 交易量
1%
44°C
$0 交易量
<1%
45°C or higher
$78 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$212結束日期
2026-07-06市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$212結束日期
2026-07-06市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETPersistent high-pressure systems and above-average baseline temperatures across central Spain—following the hottest first half of 2026 on record and a late-June heatwave that pushed Madrid to 40°C—have driven market-implied odds toward 39–40°C for July 6. Official forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC currently converge on daytime maxima of 38–39°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, with limited model spread on peak values. The narrow edge for 40°C reflects trader expectations that urban heat-island amplification or minor forecast upgrades in the final 48 hours could nudge readings one degree higher, while lower outcomes remain possible if subsidence weakens or boundary-layer mixing increases. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Madrid’s reference station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions