Recent delays in Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro release, following missed internal targets for June and July 2026, are the main driver behind the 41.8% implied probability of no launch by August 31. July's rollout of Gemini 3.6 Flash and related variants without the Pro model, combined with a Bloomberg report on performance shortfalls and DeepMind executive comments about ongoing partner testing, have reinforced trader caution. While some probability clusters around late-August dates like the 26th or 27th, the absence of official announcements or certification signals keeps near-term resolution uncertain amid typical pre-training and evaluation cycles for frontier large language models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No release by August 31 41.8%
August 27 17.8%
August 26 13.8%
August 17 7.9%
$214,372 交易量
$214,372 交易量
2026-08-10
August 7
1%
August 8
<1%
August 9
<1%
August 10
6%
August 11
2%
August 12
1%
August 13
1%
August 14
1%
August 15
<1%
August 16
5%
August 17
8%
August 18
3%
August 19
6%
August 20
1%
August 21
1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
<1%
August 24
6%
August 25
2%
August 26
14%
August 27
9%
August 28
5%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
6%
No release by August 31
42%
No release by August 31 41.8%
August 27 17.8%
August 26 13.8%
August 17 7.9%
$214,372 交易量
$214,372 交易量
2026-08-10
August 7
$10,778 交易量
1%
August 8
$2,832 交易量
<1%
August 9
$2,945 交易量
<1%
August 10
$65,016 交易量
6%
August 11
$9,014 交易量
2%
August 12
$10,053 交易量
1%
August 13
$6,922 交易量
1%
August 14
$3,274 交易量
1%
August 15
$1,993 交易量
<1%
August 16
$2,219 交易量
5%
August 17
$2,571 交易量
8%
August 18
$3,406 交易量
3%
August 19
$2,724 交易量
6%
August 20
$2,263 交易量
1%
August 21
$1,841 交易量
1%
August 22
$1,362 交易量
<1%
August 23
$1,337 交易量
<1%
August 24
$3,447 交易量
6%
August 25
$4,000 交易量
2%
August 26
$2,973 交易量
14%
August 27
$6,565 交易量
9%
August 28
$3,009 交易量
5%
August 29
$4,321 交易量
1%
August 30
$1,842 交易量
1%
August 31
$4,461 交易量
6%
No release by August 31
$21,224 交易量
42%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent delays in Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro release, following missed internal targets for June and July 2026, are the main driver behind the 41.8% implied probability of no launch by August 31. July's rollout of Gemini 3.6 Flash and related variants without the Pro model, combined with a Bloomberg report on performance shortfalls and DeepMind executive comments about ongoing partner testing, have reinforced trader caution. While some probability clusters around late-August dates like the 26th or 27th, the absence of official announcements or certification signals keeps near-term resolution uncertain amid typical pre-training and evaluation cycles for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
交易量
$214,372結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent delays in Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro release, following missed internal targets for June and July 2026, are the main driver behind the 41.8% implied probability of no launch by August 31. July's rollout of Gemini 3.6 Flash and related variants without the Pro model, combined with a Bloomberg report on performance shortfalls and DeepMind executive comments about ongoing partner testing, have reinforced trader caution. While some probability clusters around late-August dates like the 26th or 27th, the absence of official announcements or certification signals keeps near-term resolution uncertain amid typical pre-training and evaluation cycles for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$214,372結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent delays in Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro release, following missed internal targets for June and July 2026, are the main driver behind the 41.8% implied probability of no launch by August 31. July's rollout of Gemini 3.6 Flash and related variants without the Pro model, combined with a Bloomberg report on performance shortfalls and DeepMind executive comments about ongoing partner testing, have reinforced trader caution. While some probability clusters around late-August dates like the 26th or 27th, the absence of official announcements or certification signals keeps near-term resolution uncertain amid typical pre-training and evaluation cycles for frontier large language models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions