Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於35-39 35%
30-34 19.2%
40-44 19%
<30 11.1%
$23,807 交易量
$23,807 交易量
2026-11-06
<30
17%
30-34
21%
35-39
35%
40-44
19%
45-49
6%
50-54
2%
55+
7%
35-39 35%
30-34 19.2%
40-44 19%
<30 11.1%
$23,807 交易量
$23,807 交易量
2026-11-06
<30
$930 交易量
17%
30-34
$3,171 交易量
21%
35-39
$7,259 交易量
35%
40-44
$2,833 交易量
19%
45-49
$7,385 交易量
6%
50-54
$992 交易量
2%
55+
$1,237 交易量
7%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$23,807結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETA general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
交易量
$23,807結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRecent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於相關
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
38%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
50%
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions