The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in text-based math benchmarks as of mid-August 2026, with no single contender establishing clear momentum. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated performance on rigorous math datasets, large language model scaling strategies, and access to specialized training compute, while distinguishing confirmed capability releases from unverified internal progress. Google holds a slight edge in market-implied odds at 43.5% among named options, followed by Alibaba at 16.5%, yet the broad distribution across established players like OpenAI and emerging labs underscores how quickly new model iterations or benchmark updates could shift sentiment. Upcoming developer conferences and third-party evaluations in the coming weeks represent key potential catalysts that could clarify positioning ahead of the October resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 44%
阿里巴巴 17%
Z.ai 9%
小米 9%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
44%
阿里巴巴
17%
Z.ai
9%
小米
9%
OpenAI
23%
DeepSeek
5%
Anthropic
5%
美團
4%
字節跳動
4%
百度
4%
Meta
4%
微軟
4%
亞馬遜
3%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
騰訊
2%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
6%
Google 44%
阿里巴巴 17%
Z.ai 9%
小米 9%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
$5,284 交易量
44%
阿里巴巴
$304 交易量
17%
Z.ai
$224 交易量
9%
小米
$62 交易量
9%
OpenAI
$129 交易量
23%
DeepSeek
$66 交易量
5%
Anthropic
$100 交易量
5%
美團
$483 交易量
4%
字節跳動
$132 交易量
4%
百度
$64 交易量
4%
Meta
$64 交易量
4%
微軟
$260 交易量
4%
亞馬遜
$194 交易量
3%
StepFun
$147 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$64 交易量
3%
SpaceXAI
$59 交易量
3%
騰訊
$217 交易量
2%
MiniMax
$99 交易量
1%
Mistral
$135 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$228 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in text-based math benchmarks as of mid-August 2026, with no single contender establishing clear momentum. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated performance on rigorous math datasets, large language model scaling strategies, and access to specialized training compute, while distinguishing confirmed capability releases from unverified internal progress. Google holds a slight edge in market-implied odds at 43.5% among named options, followed by Alibaba at 16.5%, yet the broad distribution across established players like OpenAI and emerging labs underscores how quickly new model iterations or benchmark updates could shift sentiment. Upcoming developer conferences and third-party evaluations in the coming weeks represent key potential catalysts that could clarify positioning ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$8,313結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in text-based math benchmarks as of mid-August 2026, with no single contender establishing clear momentum. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated performance on rigorous math datasets, large language model scaling strategies, and access to specialized training compute, while distinguishing confirmed capability releases from unverified internal progress. Google holds a slight edge in market-implied odds at 43.5% among named options, followed by Alibaba at 16.5%, yet the broad distribution across established players like OpenAI and emerging labs underscores how quickly new model iterations or benchmark updates could shift sentiment. Upcoming developer conferences and third-party evaluations in the coming weeks represent key potential catalysts that could clarify positioning ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$8,313結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in text-based math benchmarks as of mid-August 2026, with no single contender establishing clear momentum. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated performance on rigorous math datasets, large language model scaling strategies, and access to specialized training compute, while distinguishing confirmed capability releases from unverified internal progress. Google holds a slight edge in market-implied odds at 43.5% among named options, followed by Alibaba at 16.5%, yet the broad distribution across established players like OpenAI and emerging labs underscores how quickly new model iterations or benchmark updates could shift sentiment. Upcoming developer conferences and third-party evaluations in the coming weeks represent key potential catalysts that could clarify positioning ahead of the October resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions