Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and recent naval skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-conflict levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily as of mid-May 2026. This sustained disruption, stemming from the late-February closure and compounded by insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and Iranian vetting procedures, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Industry assessments point to a 4–6 month recovery timeline even under optimistic scenarios, while recent ship seizures and blockades highlight persistent risks to oil and LNG flows representing about 20% of global supply. Diplomatic progress or de-escalation in the coming weeks could shift odds, but current trader consensus prices in extended uncertainty around energy logistics and inventory drawdowns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$234,181 交易量
$234,181 交易量
2026-07-31
$234,181 交易量
$234,181 交易量
2026-07-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and recent naval skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-conflict levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily as of mid-May 2026. This sustained disruption, stemming from the late-February closure and compounded by insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and Iranian vetting procedures, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Industry assessments point to a 4–6 month recovery timeline even under optimistic scenarios, while recent ship seizures and blockades highlight persistent risks to oil and LNG flows representing about 20% of global supply. Diplomatic progress or de-escalation in the coming weeks could shift odds, but current trader consensus prices in extended uncertainty around energy logistics and inventory drawdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$234,181結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and recent naval skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-conflict levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily as of mid-May 2026. This sustained disruption, stemming from the late-February closure and compounded by insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and Iranian vetting procedures, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Industry assessments point to a 4–6 month recovery timeline even under optimistic scenarios, while recent ship seizures and blockades highlight persistent risks to oil and LNG flows representing about 20% of global supply. Diplomatic progress or de-escalation in the coming weeks could shift odds, but current trader consensus prices in extended uncertainty around energy logistics and inventory drawdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$234,181結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and recent naval skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-conflict levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily as of mid-May 2026. This sustained disruption, stemming from the late-February closure and compounded by insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and Iranian vetting procedures, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Industry assessments point to a 4–6 month recovery timeline even under optimistic scenarios, while recent ship seizures and blockades highlight persistent risks to oil and LNG flows representing about 20% of global supply. Diplomatic progress or de-escalation in the coming weeks could shift odds, but current trader consensus prices in extended uncertainty around energy logistics and inventory drawdowns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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