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icon for Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？
政治·Us House

Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？

icon for Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？
政治·Us House

Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？

是

34% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

34% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tom Kean Jr. returned to the House floor on June 30, 2026, after a four-month absence from March 5 onward, publicly attributing it to depression treatment and hospitalization. Since resuming duties, he has issued multiple district press releases in August, sponsored legislation, and advanced his reelection bid in New Jersey’s 7th District, where he won the uncontested Republican primary in June and faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in November. His current term runs until January 3, 2027, with no subsequent announcements or reports of further health-related departures or resignation plans. These developments anchor trader consensus around completion of the term rather than early exit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$69
結束日期
2027-01-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tom Kean Jr. returned to the House floor on June 30, 2026, after a four-month absence from March 5 onward, publicly attributing it to depression treatment and hospitalization. Since resuming duties, he has issued multiple district press releases in August, sponsored legislation, and advanced his reelection bid in New Jersey’s 7th District, where he won the uncontested Republican primary in June and faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in November. His current term runs until January 3, 2027, with no subsequent announcements or reports of further health-related departures or resignation plans. These developments anchor trader consensus around completion of the term rather than early exit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$69
結束日期
2027-01-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Kean Jr.會在任期結束前離任美國眾議員嗎？" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？" is "Tom Kean Jr.會在任期結束前離任美國眾議員嗎？" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tom Kean Jr.在任期結束前出任美國代表？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.