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政治·主要

TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者

icon for TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者

基督徒梅內菲 85.7%

Al Green 10.8%

Gretchen Brown <1%

阿曼達·愛德華茲 <1%

Polymarket

$27,832 交易量

基督徒梅內菲 85.7%

Al Green 10.8%

Gretchen Brown <1%

阿曼達·愛德華茲 <1%

Polymarket

$27,832 交易量

基督徒梅內菲

$16,680 交易量

86%

Al Green

$4,866 交易量

11%

Gretchen Brown

$3,570 交易量

<1%

阿曼達·愛德華茲

$2,716 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 85% implied probability over veteran Rep. Al Green (10%), reflecting recent polling momentum in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School poll from May 5-8 showed Menefee leading 50%-43% among likely voters, widening a prior six-point edge amid debates where Green labeled his rival a "fake fighter." Menefee, sworn in after winning a special election earlier this year, benefits from incumbency in the reliably blue seat following redistricting that pitted the two Democrats. Early voting begins May 18 ahead of the May 26 runoff, with the winner poised for the general election victory. Late turnout or scandals could shift dynamics in this incumbent-vs-incumbent contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$27,832
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 85% implied probability over veteran Rep. Al Green (10%), reflecting recent polling momentum in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School poll from May 5-8 showed Menefee leading 50%-43% among likely voters, widening a prior six-point edge amid debates where Green labeled his rival a "fake fighter." Menefee, sworn in after winning a special election earlier this year, benefits from incumbency in the reliably blue seat following redistricting that pitted the two Democrats. Early voting begins May 18 ahead of the May 26 runoff, with the winner poised for the general election victory. Late turnout or scandals could shift dynamics in this incumbent-vs-incumbent contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$27,832
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "基督徒梅內菲" at 86%, followed by "Al Green" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $27.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" is "基督徒梅內菲" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.