The dominant 77.5% implied probability on “None in 2026” reflects trader assessment that frontier large language models remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with current leaders clustered in the low-to-mid 1400s and incremental gains from scaling laws and post-training proving slower than earlier hype suggested. Anthropic’s 11% share leads other labs because its Claude series has posted the steadiest recent benchmark climbs, while OpenAI, Google, and xAI trail at single-digit odds amid longer internal development cycles and competitive pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include expected major releases in Q4 2026 and any new training runs that could accelerate capability jumps before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年無一家 78%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.3%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 交易量
$126,226 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年無一家
77%
Anthropic
11%
OpenAI
4%
2%
xAI
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
2026年無一家 78%
Anthropic 11%
OpenAI 4.3%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 交易量
$126,226 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年無一家
$26,251 交易量
77%
Anthropic
$18,694 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$15,322 交易量
4%
$12,081 交易量
2%
xAI
$9,668 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$11,378 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$13,542 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,817 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The dominant 77.5% implied probability on “None in 2026” reflects trader assessment that frontier large language models remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with current leaders clustered in the low-to-mid 1400s and incremental gains from scaling laws and post-training proving slower than earlier hype suggested. Anthropic’s 11% share leads other labs because its Claude series has posted the steadiest recent benchmark climbs, while OpenAI, Google, and xAI trail at single-digit odds amid longer internal development cycles and competitive pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include expected major releases in Q4 2026 and any new training runs that could accelerate capability jumps before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市場開放時間： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$126,226結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The dominant 77.5% implied probability on “None in 2026” reflects trader assessment that frontier large language models remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with current leaders clustered in the low-to-mid 1400s and incremental gains from scaling laws and post-training proving slower than earlier hype suggested. Anthropic’s 11% share leads other labs because its Claude series has posted the steadiest recent benchmark climbs, while OpenAI, Google, and xAI trail at single-digit odds amid longer internal development cycles and competitive pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include expected major releases in Q4 2026 and any new training runs that could accelerate capability jumps before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$126,226結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETThe dominant 77.5% implied probability on “None in 2026” reflects trader assessment that frontier large language models remain well below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with current leaders clustered in the low-to-mid 1400s and incremental gains from scaling laws and post-training proving slower than earlier hype suggested. Anthropic’s 11% share leads other labs because its Claude series has posted the steadiest recent benchmark climbs, while OpenAI, Google, and xAI trail at single-digit odds amid longer internal development cycles and competitive pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include expected major releases in Q4 2026 and any new training runs that could accelerate capability jumps before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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