Trader sentiment strongly favors Avengers: Doomsday as the likely leader for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by the franchise's proven track record of massive debuts and sustained MCU momentum following recent phase developments. With a 72.5% implied probability, the market reflects broad trader consensus on the Avengers brand's ability to generate unparalleled pre-release buzz compared to other superhero entries. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 15.5% on the strength of its established fanbase and sequel appeal, though it trails notably behind the top contender. Lower probabilities for Toy Story 5 at 3.1%, Dune: Messiah at 1.8%, and titles like Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at 0.9% highlight the market's emphasis on event-level superhero spectacles over animated or sci-fi sequels. Trailer drops and marketing campaigns in the coming months remain key swing factors for these positions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？
哪部電影在2026年有最大的開幕週末？
復仇者聯盟：末日之戰 73%
蜘蛛人：全新一天 15%
玩具總動員5 3.1%
奧德賽 1.9%
$1,571,931 交易量
$1,571,931 交易量
2026-12-31
復仇者聯盟：末日之戰
73%
蜘蛛人：全新一天
15%
玩具總動員5
3%
奧德賽
2%
沙丘：救世主
2%
星際大戰：曼達洛人與格羅古
1%
飢餓遊戲：收割的黎明
<1%
超級瑪利歐銀河電影
<1%
復仇者聯盟：末日之戰 73%
蜘蛛人：全新一天 15%
玩具總動員5 3.1%
奧德賽 1.9%
$1,571,931 交易量
$1,571,931 交易量
2026-12-31
復仇者聯盟：末日之戰
$118,995 交易量
73%
蜘蛛人：全新一天
$43,631 交易量
15%
玩具總動員5
$181,713 交易量
3%
奧德賽
$146,997 交易量
2%
沙丘：救世主
$85,190 交易量
2%
星際大戰：曼達洛人與格羅古
$34,991 交易量
1%
飢餓遊戲：收割的黎明
$59,114 交易量
<1%
超級瑪利歐銀河電影
$18,306 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader sentiment strongly favors Avengers: Doomsday as the likely leader for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by the franchise's proven track record of massive debuts and sustained MCU momentum following recent phase developments. With a 72.5% implied probability, the market reflects broad trader consensus on the Avengers brand's ability to generate unparalleled pre-release buzz compared to other superhero entries. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 15.5% on the strength of its established fanbase and sequel appeal, though it trails notably behind the top contender. Lower probabilities for Toy Story 5 at 3.1%, Dune: Messiah at 1.8%, and titles like Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at 0.9% highlight the market's emphasis on event-level superhero spectacles over animated or sci-fi sequels. Trailer drops and marketing campaigns in the coming months remain key swing factors for these positions.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,571,931結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader sentiment strongly favors Avengers: Doomsday as the likely leader for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by the franchise's proven track record of massive debuts and sustained MCU momentum following recent phase developments. With a 72.5% implied probability, the market reflects broad trader consensus on the Avengers brand's ability to generate unparalleled pre-release buzz compared to other superhero entries. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 15.5% on the strength of its established fanbase and sequel appeal, though it trails notably behind the top contender. Lower probabilities for Toy Story 5 at 3.1%, Dune: Messiah at 1.8%, and titles like Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at 0.9% highlight the market's emphasis on event-level superhero spectacles over animated or sci-fi sequels. Trailer drops and marketing campaigns in the coming months remain key swing factors for these positions.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,571,931結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment strongly favors Avengers: Doomsday as the likely leader for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by the franchise's proven track record of massive debuts and sustained MCU momentum following recent phase developments. With a 72.5% implied probability, the market reflects broad trader consensus on the Avengers brand's ability to generate unparalleled pre-release buzz compared to other superhero entries. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 15.5% on the strength of its established fanbase and sequel appeal, though it trails notably behind the top contender. Lower probabilities for Toy Story 5 at 3.1%, Dune: Messiah at 1.8%, and titles like Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at 0.9% highlight the market's emphasis on event-level superhero spectacles over animated or sci-fi sequels. Trailer drops and marketing campaigns in the coming months remain key swing factors for these positions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions