The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic basin, with tropical cyclone formation not expected over the next seven days, driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for no US hurricane landfall by May 31. This reflects the pre-season climatology, where cooler sea surface temperatures and elevated wind shear typically inhibit development, alongside historical precedent—no continental US hurricane (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851. Seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University anticipate below-normal activity amid transitioning weak La Niña conditions. NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, followed by NOAA's full forecast May 21; a rare, rapid organization of an early tropical wave steering toward the US coast remains a slim scenario to upend this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$22,352 交易量
$22,352 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$22,352 交易量
$22,352 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic basin, with tropical cyclone formation not expected over the next seven days, driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for no US hurricane landfall by May 31. This reflects the pre-season climatology, where cooler sea surface temperatures and elevated wind shear typically inhibit development, alongside historical precedent—no continental US hurricane (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851. Seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University anticipate below-normal activity amid transitioning weak La Niña conditions. NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, followed by NOAA's full forecast May 21; a rare, rapid organization of an early tropical wave steering toward the US coast remains a slim scenario to upend this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$22,352結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic basin, with tropical cyclone formation not expected over the next seven days, driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for no US hurricane landfall by May 31. This reflects the pre-season climatology, where cooler sea surface temperatures and elevated wind shear typically inhibit development, alongside historical precedent—no continental US hurricane (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851. Seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University anticipate below-normal activity amid transitioning weak La Niña conditions. NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, followed by NOAA's full forecast May 21; a rare, rapid organization of an early tropical wave steering toward the US coast remains a slim scenario to upend this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$22,352結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic basin, with tropical cyclone formation not expected over the next seven days, driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for no US hurricane landfall by May 31. This reflects the pre-season climatology, where cooler sea surface temperatures and elevated wind shear typically inhibit development, alongside historical precedent—no continental US hurricane (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851. Seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University anticipate below-normal activity amid transitioning weak La Niña conditions. NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, followed by NOAA's full forecast May 21; a rare, rapid organization of an early tropical wave steering toward the US coast remains a slim scenario to upend this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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