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icon for 伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？
地緣政治·伊朗

伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？

icon for 伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？
地緣政治·伊朗

伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$568,487 交易量

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$568,487 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian lawmakers have intensified calls for NPT withdrawal in mid-September 2026, with 130 parliamentarians issuing statements and a triple-urgency bill submitted to the presiding board citing IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council, attacks on nuclear facilities, and unfulfilled treaty benefits. Senior security official Mohsen Rezaei stated days earlier that no decision has been made, with any move conditional on U.S. behavior amid ongoing mediation efforts involving Qatar and Pakistan. These developments occur against a backdrop of prior U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in early 2026 and persistent non-compliance findings, yet official positions continue to reference the Supreme Leader’s fatwa against nuclear weapons and emphasize coordinated institutional approval for any exit. Traders appear to view parliamentary initiatives as signaling rather than imminent policy, given the three-month notice requirement under Article X and the absence of unified government action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$568,487
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian lawmakers have intensified calls for NPT withdrawal in mid-September 2026, with 130 parliamentarians issuing statements and a triple-urgency bill submitted to the presiding board citing IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council, attacks on nuclear facilities, and unfulfilled treaty benefits. Senior security official Mohsen Rezaei stated days earlier that no decision has been made, with any move conditional on U.S. behavior amid ongoing mediation efforts involving Qatar and Pakistan. These developments occur against a backdrop of prior U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in early 2026 and persistent non-compliance findings, yet official positions continue to reference the Supreme Leader’s fatwa against nuclear weapons and emphasize coordinated institutional approval for any exit. Traders appear to view parliamentary initiatives as signaling rather than imminent policy, given the three-month notice requirement under Article X and the absence of unified government action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$568,487
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "伊朗會在2027年前退出《不擴散核武器條約》（NPT）嗎？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？" has generated $568.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？" is "伊朗會在2027年前退出《不擴散核武器條約》（NPT）嗎？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗會在2027年之前退出NPT嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.