Ongoing US-Iran talks, including Oman-mediated rounds and a new American proposal under review as of early May 2026, underpin the 58 percent implied probability that a nuclear agreement will be reached before 2027. Indirect negotiations resumed in February after protests in Iran and prior military exchanges, with mediators noting substantive progress on sanctions relief, shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, and initial curbs on uranium enrichment. Remaining gaps center on stockpile limits and verification, yet the process reflects trader assessment of diplomatic momentum outweighing earlier breakdowns. Upcoming technical discussions and potential follow-on rounds could further shift probabilities if concrete terms advance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,328,796 交易量
$1,328,796 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,328,796 交易量
$1,328,796 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran talks, including Oman-mediated rounds and a new American proposal under review as of early May 2026, underpin the 58 percent implied probability that a nuclear agreement will be reached before 2027. Indirect negotiations resumed in February after protests in Iran and prior military exchanges, with mediators noting substantive progress on sanctions relief, shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, and initial curbs on uranium enrichment. Remaining gaps center on stockpile limits and verification, yet the process reflects trader assessment of diplomatic momentum outweighing earlier breakdowns. Upcoming technical discussions and potential follow-on rounds could further shift probabilities if concrete terms advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,328,796結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran talks, including Oman-mediated rounds and a new American proposal under review as of early May 2026, underpin the 58 percent implied probability that a nuclear agreement will be reached before 2027. Indirect negotiations resumed in February after protests in Iran and prior military exchanges, with mediators noting substantive progress on sanctions relief, shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, and initial curbs on uranium enrichment. Remaining gaps center on stockpile limits and verification, yet the process reflects trader assessment of diplomatic momentum outweighing earlier breakdowns. Upcoming technical discussions and potential follow-on rounds could further shift probabilities if concrete terms advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,328,796結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran talks, including Oman-mediated rounds and a new American proposal under review as of early May 2026, underpin the 58 percent implied probability that a nuclear agreement will be reached before 2027. Indirect negotiations resumed in February after protests in Iran and prior military exchanges, with mediators noting substantive progress on sanctions relief, shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, and initial curbs on uranium enrichment. Remaining gaps center on stockpile limits and verification, yet the process reflects trader assessment of diplomatic momentum outweighing earlier breakdowns. Upcoming technical discussions and potential follow-on rounds could further shift probabilities if concrete terms advance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions