Israel's naval blockade of Gaza, enforced through repeated interceptions of civilian vessels in international waters, underpins the 98.9% trader consensus against the Global Sumud Flotilla reaching the territory by May 31. Following an April 2026 interception of over 20 boats and detentions of activists, a renewed convoy of dozens of vessels departed from Turkey on May 14 and remains en route amid ongoing enforcement patterns. Historical precedents show such missions consistently redirected or halted before entering territorial seas, with no successful arrivals in recent years. While late diplomatic interventions, mechanical delays, or shifts in blockade policy could theoretically alter the timeline, the short remaining window and established operational response make these outcomes improbable.