Israel's naval blockade of Gaza, maintained for nearly two decades, remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that no flotilla will reach Israeli waters by May 31. Israeli forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla's main vessels in international waters near Greece on April 29-30, boarding dozens of boats and detaining activists before any approach to territorial limits. A renewed departure of several vessels from Turkey on May 14 follows the same pattern of prior interceptions, leaving minimal time for any successful transit amid ongoing enforcement. Traders assess the blockade's consistent application and rapid response capabilities as likely to prevent entry within the narrow remaining window, consistent with historical outcomes for such missions.