Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s April 26 decision to defer any consideration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pardon request until after efforts to reach a plea deal in the corruption trial have been exhausted remains the dominant factor behind traders’ strong preference for no clemency by June 30. Herzog has initiated mediation between the attorney general and Netanyahu’s legal team, with the process framed as a prerequisite that prioritizes negotiated resolution over immediate executive action. Ongoing U.S. pressure for a pardon has not altered Herzog’s stated approach, and no procedural breakthroughs or new announcements have emerged in the intervening weeks to accelerate timelines. With the June 30 deadline less than six weeks away and the mediation track still in its early stages, market pricing reflects the institutional and procedural barriers to rapid resolution.