Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated amid the fragile post-conflict environment between the United States and Iran. Iranian authorities continue to assert administrative control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, directing vessels to approved routes, imposing coordination requirements, and warning against unauthorized passages, while the United States maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports and facilitates limited southern corridor transits. Shipping data as of late September 2026 shows reduced but ongoing daily movements—around two dozen vessels on recent days, many operating without AIS—supported by ship-to-ship transfers and dark transits, preventing a complete halt. Recent diplomatic setbacks, including the U.S. rejection of Iran’s reopening proposal on September 28 and subsequent reports of explosions in the waterway, have sustained uncertainty. Traders monitor mediator-led talks involving Oman and Qatar, potential IRGC actions, and U.S. Central Command responses as key variables that could alter daily transit volumes.