Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl holds a commanding lead in the May 19 Republican primary for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District due to his prior service in the seat, strong name recognition across Mobile and Baldwin counties, and consistent polling advantages among likely GOP voters. State Rep. Rhett Marques remains the clearest challenger, drawing support from his legislative record and targeted endorsements, yet trails in most surveys amid a large pool of undecided voters. Recent fundraising reports show both candidates competitive, while redistricting developments tied to recent court rulings add uncertainty to the district’s final boundaries. Traders reflect this dynamic through current pricing that favors Carl’s established profile over the field.