Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025, has solidified a House of Commons majority through recent by-elections on April 13, 2026, and multiple floor-crossings by opposition MPs from the Conservatives and NDP, quelling earlier spring snap election speculation. This newfound stability removes incentives for an early dissolution, as the Canada Elections Act mandates the next vote no later than October 2030, with trader consensus pricing "No" at 98.8% implied probability. Realistic shifts would require a cascade of defections, a successful no-confidence vote despite the majority, or unforeseen scandal eroding support within six weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$80,444 交易量
$80,444 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$80,444 交易量
$80,444 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025, has solidified a House of Commons majority through recent by-elections on April 13, 2026, and multiple floor-crossings by opposition MPs from the Conservatives and NDP, quelling earlier spring snap election speculation. This newfound stability removes incentives for an early dissolution, as the Canada Elections Act mandates the next vote no later than October 2030, with trader consensus pricing "No" at 98.8% implied probability. Realistic shifts would require a cascade of defections, a successful no-confidence vote despite the majority, or unforeseen scandal eroding support within six weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
交易量
$80,444结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025, has solidified a House of Commons majority through recent by-elections on April 13, 2026, and multiple floor-crossings by opposition MPs from the Conservatives and NDP, quelling earlier spring snap election speculation. This newfound stability removes incentives for an early dissolution, as the Canada Elections Act mandates the next vote no later than October 2030, with trader consensus pricing "No" at 98.8% implied probability. Realistic shifts would require a cascade of defections, a successful no-confidence vote despite the majority, or unforeseen scandal eroding support within six weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$80,444结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025, has solidified a House of Commons majority through recent by-elections on April 13, 2026, and multiple floor-crossings by opposition MPs from the Conservatives and NDP, quelling earlier spring snap election speculation. This newfound stability removes incentives for an early dissolution, as the Canada Elections Act mandates the next vote no later than October 2030, with trader consensus pricing "No" at 98.8% implied probability. Realistic shifts would require a cascade of defections, a successful no-confidence vote despite the majority, or unforeseen scandal eroding support within six weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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