The closely contested 53.5% market-implied probability for a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026 reflects uncertainty in the central bank’s monetary policy path amid elevated energy prices and persistent trade tensions. Recent CPI data showed inflation rising to 2.4% year-over-year in March, driven by Middle East conflict-related oil shocks, prompting the BoC to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 while signaling it would not tolerate persistent above-target pressures. Offsetting this, weak GDP growth projections around 1.2% for 2026 and U.S. tariff uncertainty have kept expectations for near-term easing or stability intact, with futures markets pricing only modest hikes later in the year. The June 10 policy decision and July Monetary Policy Report will provide key updates on inflation persistence and labor market conditions that could shift trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely contested 53.5% market-implied probability for a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026 reflects uncertainty in the central bank’s monetary policy path amid elevated energy prices and persistent trade tensions. Recent CPI data showed inflation rising to 2.4% year-over-year in March, driven by Middle East conflict-related oil shocks, prompting the BoC to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 while signaling it would not tolerate persistent above-target pressures. Offsetting this, weak GDP growth projections around 1.2% for 2026 and U.S. tariff uncertainty have kept expectations for near-term easing or stability intact, with futures markets pricing only modest hikes later in the year. The June 10 policy decision and July Monetary Policy Report will provide key updates on inflation persistence and labor market conditions that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
交易量
$7,865结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely contested 53.5% market-implied probability for a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026 reflects uncertainty in the central bank’s monetary policy path amid elevated energy prices and persistent trade tensions. Recent CPI data showed inflation rising to 2.4% year-over-year in March, driven by Middle East conflict-related oil shocks, prompting the BoC to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 while signaling it would not tolerate persistent above-target pressures. Offsetting this, weak GDP growth projections around 1.2% for 2026 and U.S. tariff uncertainty have kept expectations for near-term easing or stability intact, with futures markets pricing only modest hikes later in the year. The June 10 policy decision and July Monetary Policy Report will provide key updates on inflation persistence and labor market conditions that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,865结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 53.5% market-implied probability for a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026 reflects uncertainty in the central bank’s monetary policy path amid elevated energy prices and persistent trade tensions. Recent CPI data showed inflation rising to 2.4% year-over-year in March, driven by Middle East conflict-related oil shocks, prompting the BoC to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 while signaling it would not tolerate persistent above-target pressures. Offsetting this, weak GDP growth projections around 1.2% for 2026 and U.S. tariff uncertainty have kept expectations for near-term easing or stability intact, with futures markets pricing only modest hikes later in the year. The June 10 policy decision and July Monetary Policy Report will provide key updates on inflation persistence and labor market conditions that could shift trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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