Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
1.38–1.41ºC 100.0%
<1.30ºC <1%
1.30–1.33ºC <1%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$20,855 交易量
$20,855 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
No
1.30–1.33ºC
No
1.34–1.37ºC
No
1.38–1.41ºC
Yes
1.42–1.45ºC
No
>1.45ºC
No
1.38–1.41ºC 100.0%
<1.30ºC <1%
1.30–1.33ºC <1%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$20,855 交易量
$20,855 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
$657 交易量
No
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 交易量
No
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 交易量
No
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,761 交易量
Yes
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,307 交易量
No
>1.45ºC
$1,531 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$20,855结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$20,855结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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