SpaceX's Falcon 9 cadence, supported by rapid booster reuse and Starlink v2 mini deployments, anchors trader expectations near 12 launches in September 2026, with confirmed missions including Starlink Groups 15-23 and 15-24, Crew-13, and the O3b mPOWER trio. Closely matched probabilities across 12–14 reflect uncertainty over additional Starlink flights, SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer payloads, and whether Starship Flight 14 reaches orbit from Starbase. Key swing factors include range scheduling conflicts, potential weather delays at Vandenberg or Cape Canaveral, and Starship's developmental timeline, which could push totals lower or enable opportunistic extras if turnaround times hold.