Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the Greens hovering at or below 17 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing them at 16 percent amid a tight four-way contest involving the CDU, Linke, and AfD. Aggregated trends from Infratest dimap and Civey similarly register the party at 16–17 percent in July and August fieldwork, reflecting limited momentum despite coalition negotiations and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Senate. Traders' 63.5 percent implied probability on the Under reflects this sustained polling range, with no decisive late surge evident in primary data or campaign developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于超过
37% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
超过
37% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the Greens hovering at or below 17 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing them at 16 percent amid a tight four-way contest involving the CDU, Linke, and AfD. Aggregated trends from Infratest dimap and Civey similarly register the party at 16–17 percent in July and August fieldwork, reflecting limited momentum despite coalition negotiations and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Senate. Traders' 63.5 percent implied probability on the Under reflects this sustained polling range, with no decisive late surge evident in primary data or campaign developments.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
交易量
$102结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the Greens hovering at or below 17 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing them at 16 percent amid a tight four-way contest involving the CDU, Linke, and AfD. Aggregated trends from Infratest dimap and Civey similarly register the party at 16–17 percent in July and August fieldwork, reflecting limited momentum despite coalition negotiations and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Senate. Traders' 63.5 percent implied probability on the Under reflects this sustained polling range, with no decisive late surge evident in primary data or campaign developments.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$102结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the Greens hovering at or below 17 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing them at 16 percent amid a tight four-way contest involving the CDU, Linke, and AfD. Aggregated trends from Infratest dimap and Civey similarly register the party at 16–17 percent in July and August fieldwork, reflecting limited momentum despite coalition negotiations and dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Senate. Traders' 63.5 percent implied probability on the Under reflects this sustained polling range, with no decisive late surge evident in primary data or campaign developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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