China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% anchors trader expectations, aligning closely with the leading 4.0-5.0% outcome priced at 69.5%. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5.0% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and reflecting resilient exports alongside industrial output, though tempered by softening consumer demand and elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analyst projections from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster around 4.4-4.8%, reinforcing the view that structural headwinds such as property-sector weakness and subdued domestic consumption will limit upside while policy support prevents sharper deceleration. The narrower 5.0-6.0% band at 28.7% captures residual momentum from early-year strength, yet most assessments anticipate moderation through the remainder of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.8%
6.0-7.0% 1.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 交易量
$570,161 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
70%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.8%
6.0-7.0% 1.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 交易量
$570,161 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
$44,354 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,493 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,773 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,348 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,542 交易量
70%
5.0–6.0%
$56,149 交易量
29%
6.0-7.0%
$51,008 交易量
2%
7.0–8.0%
$55,733 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$23,951 交易量
<1%
9.0%及以上
$86,811 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% anchors trader expectations, aligning closely with the leading 4.0-5.0% outcome priced at 69.5%. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5.0% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and reflecting resilient exports alongside industrial output, though tempered by softening consumer demand and elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analyst projections from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster around 4.4-4.8%, reinforcing the view that structural headwinds such as property-sector weakness and subdued domestic consumption will limit upside while policy support prevents sharper deceleration. The narrower 5.0-6.0% band at 28.7% captures residual momentum from early-year strength, yet most assessments anticipate moderation through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$570,161结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% anchors trader expectations, aligning closely with the leading 4.0-5.0% outcome priced at 69.5%. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5.0% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and reflecting resilient exports alongside industrial output, though tempered by softening consumer demand and elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analyst projections from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster around 4.4-4.8%, reinforcing the view that structural headwinds such as property-sector weakness and subdued domestic consumption will limit upside while policy support prevents sharper deceleration. The narrower 5.0-6.0% band at 28.7% captures residual momentum from early-year strength, yet most assessments anticipate moderation through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$570,161结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% anchors trader expectations, aligning closely with the leading 4.0-5.0% outcome priced at 69.5%. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5.0% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and reflecting resilient exports alongside industrial output, though tempered by softening consumer demand and elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analyst projections from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster around 4.4-4.8%, reinforcing the view that structural headwinds such as property-sector weakness and subdued domestic consumption will limit upside while policy support prevents sharper deceleration. The narrower 5.0-6.0% band at 28.7% captures residual momentum from early-year strength, yet most assessments anticipate moderation through the remainder of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题