The ongoing Las Vegas trial of Duane “Keffe D” Davis, which opened with jury selection in mid-August 2026 and is projected to run about a month, supplies the main catalyst behind the 62% market-implied odds of conviction. Prosecutors have centered their case on Davis’s 2019 memoir detailing his role as the alleged “shot caller” who supplied the gun and orchestrated the drive-by in retaliation for an earlier assault on his nephew, while also presenting witness accounts, forensic testimony on Tupac Shakur’s wounds, and prior statements. Davis has pleaded not guilty, disavowed the book as exaggerated fiction meant to boost sales, and maintains he was not involved in planning the killing. With the first week of testimony now complete and additional prosecution evidence still to come, traders appear to view the memoir and circumstantial links as tilting the balance modestly toward conviction, though the defense narrative and high evidentiary bar keep the outcome contested.