Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$79,584 交易量
$79,584 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$79,584 交易量
$79,584 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
交易量
$79,584结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$79,584结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders heavily favor a "No" outcome in the Elon Musk $10b+ settlement market against OpenAI and Sam Altman because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-trust claims that face steep legal hurdles, including expired statute of limitations and evidence of Musk's early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift. Closing arguments this week underscored OpenAI's position that the company disclosed its commercial direction years ago, while Musk's pre-trial settlement overture to Greg Brockman failed to produce any agreement. With the nine-member jury now deliberating on liability and Judge Gonzalez Rogers set to determine remedies next, the high implied probability reflects skepticism that any award will clear the multibillion-dollar threshold amid typical appeals and corporate defenses in artificial intelligence disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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