Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian de facto control since its 1971 seizure alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, a longstanding territorial dispute with the UAE that has produced repeated diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, Arab League, and EU without altering ground realities. Recent US military strikes in March and July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, air defenses, and IRGC facilities on the island amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some capabilities but producing no reports of occupation, withdrawal, or transfer of authority. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates aligns with the absence of any verified change in Iranian administration, military presence, or sovereignty claims, though further US strikes, diplomatic negotiations, or regional conflict developments within resolution windows could still shift assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,409 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$50,409 交易量
8月31日
$27,900 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian de facto control since its 1971 seizure alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, a longstanding territorial dispute with the UAE that has produced repeated diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, Arab League, and EU without altering ground realities. Recent US military strikes in March and July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, air defenses, and IRGC facilities on the island amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some capabilities but producing no reports of occupation, withdrawal, or transfer of authority. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates aligns with the absence of any verified change in Iranian administration, military presence, or sovereignty claims, though further US strikes, diplomatic negotiations, or regional conflict developments within resolution windows could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
交易量
$50,409结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian de facto control since its 1971 seizure alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, a longstanding territorial dispute with the UAE that has produced repeated diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, Arab League, and EU without altering ground realities. Recent US military strikes in March and July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, air defenses, and IRGC facilities on the island amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some capabilities but producing no reports of occupation, withdrawal, or transfer of authority. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates aligns with the absence of any verified change in Iranian administration, military presence, or sovereignty claims, though further US strikes, diplomatic negotiations, or regional conflict developments within resolution windows could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$50,409结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian de facto control since its 1971 seizure alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, a longstanding territorial dispute with the UAE that has produced repeated diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, Arab League, and EU without altering ground realities. Recent US military strikes in March and July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, air defenses, and IRGC facilities on the island amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some capabilities but producing no reports of occupation, withdrawal, or transfer of authority. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates aligns with the absence of any verified change in Iranian administration, military presence, or sovereignty claims, though further US strikes, diplomatic negotiations, or regional conflict developments within resolution windows could still shift assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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