Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日阿姆斯特丹气温最高？
8月4日阿姆斯特丹气温最高？
31°C 28%
30°C 28%
28°C或以下 27%
29°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
27%
29°C
19%
30°C
28%
31°C
28%
32°C
6%
33°C
6%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或更高
<1%
31°C 28%
30°C 28%
28°C或以下 27%
29°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
$93 交易量
27%
29°C
$41 交易量
19%
30°C
$42 交易量
28%
31°C
$114 交易量
28%
32°C
$59 交易量
6%
33°C
$56 交易量
6%
34°C
$84 交易量
<1%
35°C
$57 交易量
1%
36°C
$47 交易量
<1%
37°C
$37 交易量
<1%
38°C或更高
$37 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$667结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$667结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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