Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月24日成都气温最高？
8月24日成都气温最高？
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C或更高 18%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
28°C或以下
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
10%
33°C
13%
34°C
23%
35°C
21%
36°C
13%
37°C
10%
38°C或更高
18%
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C或更高 18%
36°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
28°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
29°C
$5 交易量
4%
30°C
$5 交易量
4%
31°C
$5 交易量
2%
32°C
$20 交易量
10%
33°C
$0 交易量
13%
34°C
$0 交易量
23%
35°C
$0 交易量
21%
36°C
$0 交易量
13%
37°C
$0 交易量
10%
38°C或更高
$0 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$35结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$35结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETShort-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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