Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in NYC on May 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 20?
94-95°F 99.8%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,430 交易量
$58,430 交易量
2026-05-20
94-95°F
100%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 99.8%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,430 交易量
$58,430 交易量
2026-05-20
94-95°F
$8,601 交易量
100%
96-97°F
$9,361 交易量
<1%
98-99°F
$2,362 交易量
<1%
100-101°F
$2,245 交易量
<1%
102-103°F
$1,502 交易量
<1%
104°F or higher
$359 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$58,430结束日期
2026-05-20市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$58,430结束日期
2026-05-20市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRecent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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