The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C or higher stem primarily from short-range forecast uncertainty in Taipei’s subtropical summer regime two days ahead. Central Weather Administration guidance projects a daily high near 32°C under partly cloudy skies with possible afternoon thundershowers, yet subtle differences in cloud cover, humidity, and any steering influence from a distant tropical depression east of Guam could shift peak afternoon temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical August baselines show typical highs of 31–34°C, but ensemble spreads in numerical models highlight genuine variability in boundary-layer heating and precipitation timing. Traders are weighting recent model consensus against climatological norms while awaiting the next CWA briefing and refined runs that will narrow resolution criteria around the exact daily maximum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月24日台北气温最高？
8月24日台北气温最高？
29°C 22%
32°C or higher 21%
30°C 20%
31°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
15%
29°C
22%
30°C
20%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
21%
29°C 22%
32°C or higher 21%
30°C 20%
31°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
22°C or below
$3,154 交易量
2%
23°C
$1,539 交易量
1%
24°C
$1,283 交易量
1%
25°C
$1,048 交易量
2%
26°C
$150 交易量
2%
27°C
$71 交易量
5%
28°C
$429 交易量
15%
29°C
$182 交易量
22%
30°C
$22 交易量
20%
31°C
$140 交易量
19%
32°C or higher
$382 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C or higher stem primarily from short-range forecast uncertainty in Taipei’s subtropical summer regime two days ahead. Central Weather Administration guidance projects a daily high near 32°C under partly cloudy skies with possible afternoon thundershowers, yet subtle differences in cloud cover, humidity, and any steering influence from a distant tropical depression east of Guam could shift peak afternoon temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical August baselines show typical highs of 31–34°C, but ensemble spreads in numerical models highlight genuine variability in boundary-layer heating and precipitation timing. Traders are weighting recent model consensus against climatological norms while awaiting the next CWA briefing and refined runs that will narrow resolution criteria around the exact daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$8,400结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C or higher stem primarily from short-range forecast uncertainty in Taipei’s subtropical summer regime two days ahead. Central Weather Administration guidance projects a daily high near 32°C under partly cloudy skies with possible afternoon thundershowers, yet subtle differences in cloud cover, humidity, and any steering influence from a distant tropical depression east of Guam could shift peak afternoon temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical August baselines show typical highs of 31–34°C, but ensemble spreads in numerical models highlight genuine variability in boundary-layer heating and precipitation timing. Traders are weighting recent model consensus against climatological norms while awaiting the next CWA briefing and refined runs that will narrow resolution criteria around the exact daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,400结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThe closely matched market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C or higher stem primarily from short-range forecast uncertainty in Taipei’s subtropical summer regime two days ahead. Central Weather Administration guidance projects a daily high near 32°C under partly cloudy skies with possible afternoon thundershowers, yet subtle differences in cloud cover, humidity, and any steering influence from a distant tropical depression east of Guam could shift peak afternoon temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical August baselines show typical highs of 31–34°C, but ensemble spreads in numerical models highlight genuine variability in boundary-layer heating and precipitation timing. Traders are weighting recent model consensus against climatological norms while awaiting the next CWA briefing and refined runs that will narrow resolution criteria around the exact daily maximum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题