Météo-France's latest guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble consensus project Paris's lowest temperature on May 15 at exactly 5°C, primarily the overnight low at Paris-Montsouris station, driving the market's 99.8% implied probability amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over Île-de-France. This below-normal reading—climatological May lows average 9–10°C—stems from a recent polar air intrusion following Ascension Day's descent polaire, with overcast skies and light winds limiting daytime highs to 13–14°C and mornings at 7–8°C. Trader sentiment reflects tight model agreement within a 1°C uncertainty band. Realistic challenges include enhanced radiational cooling under unexpected clearing (potentially 4°C) or increased cloud cover/precipitation (holding at 6°C), with final resolution hinging on evening observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月15日巴黎最低气温？
5月15日巴黎最低气温？
5°C 99.8%
2°C <1%
3°C <1%
-1°C <1%
$16,047 交易量
$16,047 交易量
2026-05-15
-2°C或以下
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
100%
5°C 99.8%
2°C <1%
3°C <1%
-1°C <1%
$16,047 交易量
$16,047 交易量
2026-05-15
-2°C或以下
$364 交易量
<1%
-1°C
$599 交易量
<1%
0°C
$992 交易量
<1%
1°C
$804 交易量
<1%
2°C
$793 交易量
1%
3°C
$867 交易量
1%
4°C
$1,089 交易量
<1%
5°C
$2,001 交易量
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble consensus project Paris's lowest temperature on May 15 at exactly 5°C, primarily the overnight low at Paris-Montsouris station, driving the market's 99.8% implied probability amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over Île-de-France. This below-normal reading—climatological May lows average 9–10°C—stems from a recent polar air intrusion following Ascension Day's descent polaire, with overcast skies and light winds limiting daytime highs to 13–14°C and mornings at 7–8°C. Trader sentiment reflects tight model agreement within a 1°C uncertainty band. Realistic challenges include enhanced radiational cooling under unexpected clearing (potentially 4°C) or increased cloud cover/precipitation (holding at 6°C), with final resolution hinging on evening observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$16,047结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble consensus project Paris's lowest temperature on May 15 at exactly 5°C, primarily the overnight low at Paris-Montsouris station, driving the market's 99.8% implied probability amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over Île-de-France. This below-normal reading—climatological May lows average 9–10°C—stems from a recent polar air intrusion following Ascension Day's descent polaire, with overcast skies and light winds limiting daytime highs to 13–14°C and mornings at 7–8°C. Trader sentiment reflects tight model agreement within a 1°C uncertainty band. Realistic challenges include enhanced radiational cooling under unexpected clearing (potentially 4°C) or increased cloud cover/precipitation (holding at 6°C), with final resolution hinging on evening observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,047结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETMétéo-France's latest guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble consensus project Paris's lowest temperature on May 15 at exactly 5°C, primarily the overnight low at Paris-Montsouris station, driving the market's 99.8% implied probability amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over Île-de-France. This below-normal reading—climatological May lows average 9–10°C—stems from a recent polar air intrusion following Ascension Day's descent polaire, with overcast skies and light winds limiting daytime highs to 13–14°C and mornings at 7–8°C. Trader sentiment reflects tight model agreement within a 1°C uncertainty band. Realistic challenges include enhanced radiational cooling under unexpected clearing (potentially 4°C) or increased cloud cover/precipitation (holding at 6°C), with final resolution hinging on evening observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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