Météo-France's latest forecast for Paris on May 16 projects a daytime high of 15°C under partly cloudy skies with westerly winds at 15 km/h, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 42.5% implied probability amid persistent cool northerly airflow this week that has suppressed temperatures below the mid-May climatological normal of 18°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread around 15–16°C, with 16°C viable if afternoon éclaircies allow greater solar insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while denser clouds or showers could cap at 14°C. Key differentiator: cloud cover evolution during peak heating hours (2–5 p.m.), per official guidance; final observations from Paris-Le Bourget station will resolve amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty. New model runs overnight may refine odds before midday.