Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May subtropical climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea and the influence of the East Asian monsoon. Traders price the 25°C contract at 99.9% implied probability because the verified station data directly determines resolution, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. Only an improbable combination of clear skies, calm winds, and rapid radiational cooling before dawn could realistically produce a 24°C reading, a scenario unsupported by the prevailing atmospheric conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,402 交易量
$63,402 交易量
2026-05-15
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,402 交易量
$63,402 交易量
2026-05-15
18°C或以下
$2,496 交易量
<1%
19°C
$2,286 交易量
<1%
20°C
$2,298 交易量
<1%
21°C
$2,278 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,789 交易量
<1%
23°C
$5,174 交易量
<1%
24°C
$12,249 交易量
<1%
25°C
$8,650 交易量
100%
26°C
$12,002 交易量
<1%
27°C
$8,229 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,951 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May subtropical climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea and the influence of the East Asian monsoon. Traders price the 25°C contract at 99.9% implied probability because the verified station data directly determines resolution, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. Only an improbable combination of clear skies, calm winds, and rapid radiational cooling before dawn could realistically produce a 24°C reading, a scenario unsupported by the prevailing atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$63,402结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May subtropical climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea and the influence of the East Asian monsoon. Traders price the 25°C contract at 99.9% implied probability because the verified station data directly determines resolution, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. Only an improbable combination of clear skies, calm winds, and rapid radiational cooling before dawn could realistically produce a 24°C reading, a scenario unsupported by the prevailing atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$63,402结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market’s near-certain consensus on that outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May subtropical climatology, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea and the influence of the East Asian monsoon. Traders price the 25°C contract at 99.9% implied probability because the verified station data directly determines resolution, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. Only an improbable combination of clear skies, calm winds, and rapid radiational cooling before dawn could realistically produce a 24°C reading, a scenario unsupported by the prevailing atmospheric conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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