Traders see the closest implied probabilities clustered between 44°C and 47°C because short-range ensemble forecasts for the Red Sea coast display a narrow but unresolved spread in peak surface temperatures driven by variable boundary-layer mixing and subsidence strength. Historical May maxima in Jeddah typically range from the mid-30s to low-40s, yet recent model runs indicate potential for stronger daytime heating under clear skies and light winds that could push readings into the upper 40s. Key resolution factors include the exact timing of any sea-breeze onset, which caps extremes, and official measurements from King Abdulaziz International Airport. Updated high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow this range before May 18.