Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥5月17日最高气温？
芝加哥5月17日最高气温？
64°F或更高 99.8%
58-59°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
45°F或更低
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64°F或更高
100%
64°F或更高 99.8%
58-59°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-17
45°F或更低
$591 交易量
<1%
46-47°F
$561 交易量
<1%
48-49°F
$486 交易量
<1%
50-51°F
$486 交易量
<1%
52-53°F
$486 交易量
1%
54-55°F
$486 交易量
1%
56-57°F
$486 交易量
1%
58-59°F
$486 交易量
1%
60-61°F
$850 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$1,035 交易量
<1%
64°F或更高
$911 交易量
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$6,849结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$6,849结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 64°F or higher in Chicago on May 17 (88.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting daytime highs in the mid-70s to near 80°F amid a building upper-level ridge over the Midwest and warm southerly winds advecting heat from the south. This positioning stems from a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, including a record-breaking 74°F high at Midway Airport on May 15—warmest of 2026 so far—shifting from earlier cooler patterns. Minimal odds on cooler outcomes (≤0.5% each) align with climatological May mid-month averages near 70°F and negligible risk of cold air intrusions. Watch evening model updates and NWS advisories for potential convective interference, though consensus remains robustly warm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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